Coinbase chief executive Brian Armstrong believes Bitcoin has already hit its cyclical floor, despite the digital asset still trading below a technical threshold that has historically validated market recoveries.
Speaking with Bloomberg and CNBC on September 10, Armstrong predicted that Bitcoin will climb over the coming 12 to 24 months as the next halving draws closer. He also described a $400,000 price target by 2030 as a “reasonable” expectation.
“I personally think we’ve seen the bottom of the Bitcoin price in this cycle,” Armstrong remarked, emphasizing that this represents his individual perspective rather than an official projection from Coinbase.
His prediction comes as Bitcoin hovers near $77,000, which is approximately 39% lower than its peak of $126,198 set in October 2025. Consequently, Armstrong is forecasting a cyclical turnaround before Bitcoin has recovered its record high or surpassed the technical benchmark typically used to distinguish lasting recoveries from temporary bear-market bounces.
Bitcoin still has one historical hurdle to clear
The immediate obstacle lies just north of $80,000, a level where Bitcoin has repeatedly stalled and where its 50-week moving average has emerged as a vital indicator.
On September 2, Galaxy Research pegged this moving average at $81,473, noting that a weekly close above this threshold would reinforce the narrative that the bear market has concluded.
Historically, in four out of Bitcoin’s five completed bear markets, the asset breached its 50-week moving average only after the cyclical bottom had already been established. The sole exception occurred during the briefer correction between the two peak prices of 2021. This historical trend aligns with Armstrong’s sequence of events: a price floor is typically established before the market provides definitive proof of a new bull cycle.
Recent market activity offers some backing for this theory.
Bitcoin surged 25.4% in August, climbing from $62,899 to $78,852. The bulk of this growth occurred during the week ending August 23, when a 23.5% jump marked Bitcoin’s largest weekly dollar gain on record. Additionally, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds pulled in $3.4 billion over the course of the month, representing their strongest monthly performance since July 2025.
According to Galaxy, this upward momentum was driven by a mix of short liquidations, momentum trading, political developments in Washington, and renewed interest in the currency debasement trade. Furthermore, Bitcoin had retracted far enough from its peak to attract buyers looking for value compared to other risk assets trading near record highs.
However, some of these catalysts may not yield long-term support. Short covering can trigger rapid price spikes without building a base of sustained demand, and momentum buyers are prone to exiting if the upward trajectory stalls.
This places crucial importance on a weekly close relative to the 50-week moving average. A decisive breakout would align Armstrong’s bottom call with a signal that has historically marked the end of Bitcoin bear markets. Conversely, another rejection would keep the cryptocurrency confined below the line separating genuine recovery from ongoing consolidation.
The $400,000 target depends on a much bigger cycle
Armstrong’s long-term projection relies on a rally that far exceeds a simple return to prior highs.
From its current price of roughly $77,000, Bitcoin would need to multiply more than fivefold to reach $400,000, a milestone that sits more than three times higher than its October 2025 record.
The Coinbase executive linked his bullish outlook to Bitcoin’s established four-year halving cycle, with the next event slated for roughly 2028. This built-in mechanism will slash the block rewards distributed to miners, thereby slowing the creation of new supply.
While Armstrong’s one-to-two-year outlook aligns with the lead-up to this event, near-term hurdles must be cleared before the broader cyclical theory can be tested.
That primary obstacle remains the low-$80,000 range. Galaxy’s technical analysis highlights a weekly close above the $81,473 moving average as the most definitive proof of Armstrong’s call, a sentiment shared by other analysts pointing to resistance between $80,000 and $84,000.
Sustaining such a move will likely require robust spot market demand. Although August’s ETF inflows absorbed selling pressure during the initial rebound, Bitcoin has since struggled to push past $80,000, even as short-term momentum indicators have turned positive.
Ultimately, a weekly close above the 50-week moving average would validate Armstrong’s cyclical bottom call. A failure to break through would leave Bitcoin trading within the same range it has occupied since August, leaving investors to wait for clearer signs of a new cycle.
